Probability dictates that it is most likely an inefficient incandescent bulb, a type that you have been familiar with for decades - not an LED bulb. The lighting market is still a few years off from being dominated by LEDs, but research and governmental efforts are on the fast track toward changing that.
In a recently published Databeans report, “2011 LEDs,” the LED market is forecasted to grow at a 36 percent compound annual growth rate for lighting applications, and expected to reach $4.5 billion by 2016. This number is outpacing the LED market as whole – a market currently being led by Taiwan on a national basis.
Recent technology and environmental policies have been pushing companies to record high revenue numbers in this emerging market. The bulk of this demand includes retrofitting existing incandescent and fluorescent infrastructure with new LED bulbs. Though communications is the largest application segment for LEDs, lighting applications are expected to generate $564 million in 2011 for HB-White alone.
The most significant technological advance has been made by Phillips Lighting America, with its 60-watt LED bulb. This bulb contains their patented LUXEON rebel LEDs that are paired with a remote phosphor system. If every 60-watt bulb in the US, roughly 50 percent of the domestic market, were replaced with this Phillips LED bulb, the country would save $3.9 billion per year in energy costs, according to the Department of Energy. These bulbs should hit retail shelves in early 2012.
As a result of this tremendous upside, LED companies are beginning to see more revenue coming from lighting applications. The LED company Lextar expects to finish the first half of this year at $141 million in revenue, with up to half of its income coming from lighting applications. This trend is common among many larger competing companies such as Cree and Nichia too. Cree has reported growth of 11 percent from Q1 to Q2 of this year. Despite Nichia’s patent battles, it is managing also to put up impressive revenue numbers in the LED industry.
Growth in the LED market is coming from more than just the demand for backlighting monitors and indicator panels. Advances in home and commercial lighting applications will necessitate a large supply of retrofitted bulbs to replace existing incandescent fixtures. This will lead to strong gains for companies manufacturing the semiconductors for these products for at least 10 years.
This leaves a final question as food for thought: when all the incandescent bulbs are replaced completely by LEDs, will there be a giant ripple in sales because of the 18-year lifespan of the bulbs? Only time will tell.
Source: Databeans Estimates, USA.
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