“Despite their tiny size and minuscule price—commonly a fraction of a cent—capacitors serve as a bellwether for demand trends in technology,” said Rick Pierson, senior analyst at iSuppli. “This is because capacitors are extensively used in nearly all electronic products. For example, Apple Inc.’s iPad contains 702 capacitors, while the iPhone 4 has 469.”
Lead indicators
While demand for aluminum capacitors remains very high, so do lead times and high prices. The average lead time, i.e. the period of time it takes to deliver a part after an order is submitted, is in the 18-week range—well beyond the normal 10 to 12 weeks expected for these parts. Generally, the longer the lead time, the higher demand is relative to supply.
Unfortunately, the long lead times—and the resulting increased prices—won’t show any significant improvement until late in the fourth quarter of 2010 or even into the first quarter of 2011, iSuppli semiconductor market research shows. Making matters worse is that aluminum foil, used as the conductor in capacitors, is in short supply, adding fuel to the fire of increased prices.
Figures 1 and 2 present global pricing trend and lead time forecasts for capacitors by type for the period of March 2010 through the first quarter of 2011.
Fig. 1: Global Pricing Trends for Various Types of Capacitors (Percentage Sequential Change in Pricing in US Dollars)
Source: iSuppli, USA.A course in ceramics
According to iSuppli electronic market forecasts, ceramic capacitors are also averaging 18-week lead times, with some products being put on allocation in view of sustained consumer demand. The hardest-hit ceramic capacitors include high-capacitance components and high-voltage parts, which will take the longest to recover, as they require more capacity to build because of their longer cycle times.
However, unlike tantalum capacitors, a diverse supply base exists for ceramic capacitors, and iSuppli is seeing manufacturers commit capital in order to expand their capabilities due to high demand. As a result of the increased capacity, combined with a slowing of consumer demand for ceramic capacitors, the segment should come back into balance by late fourth quarter.
Nonetheless, iSuppli sees the potential for spot shortages here and there, and specialty products will continue to have long lead times even though overall supply will improve significantly.
Tantamount to tantalum
For tantalum capacitors, no real short-term solution exists on supply issues, and manufacturers have been conservative in adding capacity given the mature nature of the products.
Combined with issues in the supply chain for tantalum ore, serious shortages are the order of the day for tantalum capacitors. Not surprisingly, this is the reason why lead times for the parts stretch to 20 weeks and beyond.
In addition, the recent downturn has prompted manufacturers of raw materials for tantalum capacitors to scale back significantly. Manufacturers won’t invest in further capacity without long-term commitments from capacitor manufacturers, supply chain research shows.
Such problems will continue until the end of the year, iSuppli expects, with some improvements occurring in the first quarter of 2011 as raw material issues get sorted out. And depending on the mix of product and the strategic importance of the OEM, pricing on these commodity parts can be expected to continue across the board.
Pricing should stabilize in the first quarter of 2011 but will remain at higher levels in the foreseeable future.
Fig. 2: Global Lead Time Trends for Various Types of Capacitors (Percentage Sequential Change in Lead Times in Weeks)
Source: iSuppli, USA.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.