Multiple retailers around the world are actively promoting LED lights for indoor and outdoor decorative illumination applications. Meanwhile, LED lights with the Edison sockets used for replacing conventional light bulbs are starting to appear on the shelves of many of these same stores, making them a viable choice for general illumination applications.
“The LED industry is on the threshold of a new expansion phase—a phase that will be characterized by growth rates in the high double digits during the next three years,” said Dr. Jagdish Rebello, director and principal analyst at iSuppli.
“This growth will be driven by the increased adoption of High Brightness (HB) and high flux—also referred to as high power or Ultra High brightness (UHB)—LEDs into a new range of next-generation lighting applications.”
Global LED revenue will expand by 10.9 percent in 2009 to reach $7.4 billion, up from $6.7 billion in 2008. This comes in stark contrast to the overall semiconductor market, which is expected to contract by 12.4 percent in 2009 because of the slowdown in the global economy.
By 2013, the global LED market will reach $14.3 billion, nearly double from 2009.
LED lighting
Beyond general illumination, this growth is being driven by the rising penetration of LEDs as the lighting source of choice for a myriad of existing lighting applications, including automotive, traffic and street lighting, the backlighting of small LCD displays and keypads in mobile handsets, personal navigation devices, digital picture frames and cameras.
The market also is being aided by the emergence of new applications, such as backlighting of large-sized LCDs in televisions, notebooks and computer monitors and personal illumination.
Solid-state general illumination is here
As predicted by iSuppli in 2007, LEDs now have started to penetrate the general illumination market for residential dwellings and enterprise offices. And while the retail prices for LED light bulbs are still about an order of magnitude higher than those traditional incandescent lamps, customers increasingly are becoming aware of the power savings and long life benefits of solid-state LED lights.
As expected, the solid-state lighting market for HB and high-flux devices will outpace overall LED market growth through the year 2013. Through 2013, revenue generated by the traditional market for standard-brightness LEDs will decline by about 2.5 percent, while the market for HB LEDs will grow by 6.7 percent to approximately $5.4 billion. The market for high-flux LEDs grew by almost 53 percent to reach $7.8 billion.
The figure presents iSuppli’s forecast for the worldwide market for standard-brightness, HB and high-power through-hole, Surface-Mount Device (SMD) and display LED lamps.
Source: iSuppli, USALEDs: the future of general illumination
The development of high-flux LED light bulbs with luminous efficacy exceeding 100 lumens per watt, and innovative designs that allow LEDs to run on AC current without the need for an inverter, are pushing LEDs closer to being adopted in the mainstream general illumination market.
LEDs already are being used in various indoor and outdoor decorative illumination applications and are just starting to target the market for general lighting in homes and enterprises. In addition to the performance advantages offered by solid-state lighting, legislation around the world increasingly seeking to ban the use of incandescent light in favor of more energy-efficient light sources will push LEDs rapidly into the mainstream of general illumination.
Even in the near term, the advantages of solid-state lighting are beginning to outweigh the cost differential between LEDs and Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs (CFLs). And as progress is made in LED performance, the cost differential will continue to narrow.
“iSuppli projects that LED light bulbs will address the residential and enterprise general illumination market in earnest in 2010,” Rebello said. “Without a doubt, the long-term future of general illumination is LEDs. The market is expanding and investments in innovative designs and creative solutions are worthwhile.”
Source: iSuppli
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