Wednesday, December 16, 2009

LED industry entering down cycle, recovering after Chinese New Year 2010

TAIWAN: Based on statistics from LED industry research institute LEDinside, Taiwan’s listed LED manufacturers recorded total revenue of NT$6.852 billion in November 2009, down by 1.7 percent from NT$6.974 billion in October (+65 percent YoY).

LED chipmakers’ total revenue amounted to NT$3.2 billion, up by 1.6 percent MoM, and LED packagers posted NT$3.652 billion in revenue, a 4.5 percent MoM decline.

According to LEDinside’s observation of recent market conditions, ASP declined by 5~10 percent as the industry enters the down cycle. In particular, as demand for handset and notebook backlight applications gradually decreases, sales revenue in December is estimated to fall sequentially by around 10 percent.

Despite the recent increase in orders as vendors gear up for the Chinese New Year in 2010, which buffered the decline in November sales revenue, industry players believe that end market demand will only recover in March 2010, after the Chinese New Year.

Taiwan’s LED chipmakers recorded total sales revenue of NT$ 32 billion in November (+1.6 percent MoM, +102 percent YoY). Affected by the short supply of upstream LED chips, the capacity utilization rate of AlInGaP declined substantially, while that of InGaN continued to be fully-loaded. With the installation of new MOCVD equipment, several LED chipmakers such as Epistar, FOREPI, and Tekcore, all posted historic high revenues in November.

As for downstream LED packagers, the total revenue for November is NT$3.652 billion (-4.5 percent MoM; +42 percent YoY). Total packaging output exceeded that of the same period last year. A majority of LED packagers recorded declines in their revenues; in particular, demand for handset applications decreased more substantially.

In NB applications, despite the inventory replenishment from some panel makers, the overall demand for NB applications remains stagnant due to the slow season. At present, only the demand for TV, as well as for lighting applications, is still considered strong.

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